Stocks Forecast and seasonality

Cycles tell us that very soon we can see rising prices again in DX. For early December, the 51 month cycle and 570 day cycle produce a low. The bull market can last until mid-March 2023. After that, investors who are long should be cautious. For the further course of the year, falling prices are indicated.

The price of crude oil has declined significantly since June. Will the downward trend continue in 2023 or will the price rise again? This is the question I am addressing with a cycle analysis. Two cycles seem to be dominant at the moment, 992 days and 43 months. According to the composite line, we are on the way to a cyclical low on 20.04.2023. Subsequently, the forecast gives us plenty of room to the upside. Please note that the cycle line cannot make any statements about the absolute level of the price. It only marks the periods with possibly falling or rising prices. In summary: The cycles point to further weak prices until April, after which a more bullish phase could begin.

Ford - Cycle analysis For Ford shareholders, 2022 was not an easy year. The share price had more than halved from peak to low. In recent weeks, however, Ford has been able to regain ground. I want to venture an outlook for 2023 and have therefore examined the cycles of the Ford share. Two cycles, 1062 days and 5.7 years seem to be active at the moment and give the direction of the price development. The analysis continues to see weak prices until May 2023, after which a bullish market phase could emerge. From February 2024, this phase could find its end. However, cycles may weaken again or other cycles may become active, for this reason, in 2023, the analysis must be performed again to determine regime changes.

  Cycle Forecast for Ethereum  After analyzing Bitcoin, I would now like to look at the cycles in Ethereum  . The 672 day cycle and annual cycle have been good at predicting price action in the recent past. According to the cycle, we should be in a phase of rising prices. However, the current price trend cannot keep up. What can we do? Investors who are betting on rising prices should be on the lookout for buy signals. If Ethereum then rises again, there is a possibility that the rally will continue until February 2023 based on the cycle analysis.

 Cycle Forecast for Bitcoin (BTC) Bitcoin is currently under heavy pressure. The scandal surrounding FTX and the prospect of further insolvencies are making investors very cautious. Many investors are currently withdrawing their money from crypto exchanges and leaving the crypto market. Nevertheless, one does not recognize an extreme sell-off. Bitcoin manages to plateau again and again.  We have ventured a cycle analysis in the weekly chart. We liked 49 months (Kitchen cycle) and 752 days. According to the analysis, we have already found the bottom and rising prices could be imminent. The bitcoin price could really pick up speed in the middle of next year. Whether it will happen that way? The cyclical analysis always represents only one possibility. Other factors and external shocks can dominate and push the cycles into the background. 

 Cycle Forecast for MSFT Microsoft stock has been falling since December 2021 and many are wondering when it will be worth getting back in. We have subjected the share to a cyclical analysis in the weekly chart to create a longer-term forecast. Two cycles (45 months and 742 days) can depict the current situation well. The current downtrend could continue until March 2023, a sideways movement until then would also be possible. For investors looking for an entry, April 2014 could be interesting, from here on the cycles point to rising prices. Seasonal Chart for Lumber The seasonal chart for MSFT shows lows in August, year-end and March. However, the correlation with realized values has been low in the past and even often negative. For this reason, the seasonal data should only be used with great caution.

 Cycle Forecast for S&P 500 We have examined the S&P 500 in the weekly chart for long-term cycles. We used the annual cycle, the two-year cycle (715 days) and the kitchen cycle (42 months).  The current bull market could continue until the turn of the year. This could be followed by a correction phase until February 20, 2022. From the end of January to the end of March, the cycles show a positive market.  

 Cycle Forecast for Natgas In the daily chart, we could see a few interesting cycles that can represent the recent past well. We use here the annual cycle, the half-year cycle and a cycle with 514 days. If we can see entry signals from mid-December, then it is time for us to go long. Seasonal Chart for Natgas As we can see in the seasonal chart, the chart follows the yearly trend well. It is important to note that the amplitude only indicates the direction and cannot give any information about the actual price level. According to the chart, buying opportunities may arise in February.

Cycle Forecast for Lumber In the weekly chart, we could find a promising cycle. However, this one did not work in its last period. One possible reason for this is the discrepancy with the annual cycle, which reaches its low point in October. Seasonal Chart for Lumber Lumber shows a clear seasonal pattern. In October, there is a cyclical low, an entry can be sought here. The correlations with the annual course were high in the past. Only in the mid-2010s, the positive correlations disappeared for a few years. Forecast for Lumber In this chart, the cyclical trend and the seasonal trend have been superimposed. Interesting entry opportunities arise in mid-December 2022 and October 2023.

 Cycle Forecast for TSLA This is the weekly chart for TSLA. The cycles used are 330 days and 150 days. They are a good representation of the recent past. They show us a buying opportunity for the end of 2022. There are further buying options in April 2023. Seasonal Chart for TSLA We can see the seasonal progression of TSLA in the image. However, the price hardly followed the seasonal pattern in the past. In the table we can see that in most cases the correlation was even negative.

  Cycle Forecast for ALK This cyclical analysis includes 778 days, 47 months and the annual cycle. We have been long AKL since early November, due to the cycles we plan to exit in December. Seasonal Chart for ALK The share is currently following the seasonal pattern very well. In general, AKL shows a high correlation with the annual cycle. Trading opportunities Jan..22->Feb..03  90,9% Down (10 down/1 up) Feb..08->Feb..16  91,7% Up (11 up/1 down) Feb..28->Mar..06  75,0% Down (9 down/3 up) Mar..08->Mar..15  91,7% Up (11 up/1 down) Mar..25->Apr..10  83,3% Down (10 down/2 up) May.02->May.20  83,3% Down (10 down/2 up) May.27->Jun..01  75,0% Down (9 down/3 up) Jun..04->Jun..12  75,0% Down (9 down/3 up) Jun..21->Jun..27  83,3% Down (10 down/2 up) Jun..29->Jul..04  91,7% Up (11 up/1 down) Jul..13->Jul..20  75,0% Down (9 down/3 up) Jul..23->Aug..04  75,0% Down (9 down/3 up) ...

Cycle Forecast for AAPL This is the cyclical forecast for AAPL, based on 918 day and 250 day cycles. We can see that there is a buying opportunity in mid-February. Seasonal Chart for AAPL In recent months, AAPL has followed the seasonal pattern well. However, the correlation table shows that seasonal trading usually does not work for AAPL.