Stocks Forecast and seasonality

 Cycle Forecast for S&P 500 We have examined the S&P 500 in the weekly chart for long-term cycles. We used the annual cycle, the two-year cycle (715 days) and the kitchen cycle (42 months).  The current bull market could continue until the turn of the year. This could be followed by a correction phase until February 20, 2022. From the end of January to the end of March, the cycles show a positive market.  

 Cycle Forecast for Natgas In the daily chart, we could see a few interesting cycles that can represent the recent past well. We use here the annual cycle, the half-year cycle and a cycle with 514 days. If we can see entry signals from mid-December, then it is time for us to go long. Seasonal Chart for Natgas As we can see in the seasonal chart, the chart follows the yearly trend well. It is important to note that the amplitude only indicates the direction and cannot give any information about the actual price level. According to the chart, buying opportunities may arise in February.

Cycle Forecast for Lumber In the weekly chart, we could find a promising cycle. However, this one did not work in its last period. One possible reason for this is the discrepancy with the annual cycle, which reaches its low point in October. Seasonal Chart for Lumber Lumber shows a clear seasonal pattern. In October, there is a cyclical low, an entry can be sought here. The correlations with the annual course were high in the past. Only in the mid-2010s, the positive correlations disappeared for a few years. Forecast for Lumber In this chart, the cyclical trend and the seasonal trend have been superimposed. Interesting entry opportunities arise in mid-December 2022 and October 2023.

 Cycle Forecast for TSLA This is the weekly chart for TSLA. The cycles used are 330 days and 150 days. They are a good representation of the recent past. They show us a buying opportunity for the end of 2022. There are further buying options in April 2023. Seasonal Chart for TSLA We can see the seasonal progression of TSLA in the image. However, the price hardly followed the seasonal pattern in the past. In the table we can see that in most cases the correlation was even negative.

  Cycle Forecast for ALK This cyclical analysis includes 778 days, 47 months and the annual cycle. We have been long AKL since early November, due to the cycles we plan to exit in December. Seasonal Chart for ALK The share is currently following the seasonal pattern very well. In general, AKL shows a high correlation with the annual cycle. Trading opportunities Jan..22->Feb..03  90,9% Down (10 down/1 up) Feb..08->Feb..16  91,7% Up (11 up/1 down) Feb..28->Mar..06  75,0% Down (9 down/3 up) Mar..08->Mar..15  91,7% Up (11 up/1 down) Mar..25->Apr..10  83,3% Down (10 down/2 up) May.02->May.20  83,3% Down (10 down/2 up) May.27->Jun..01  75,0% Down (9 down/3 up) Jun..04->Jun..12  75,0% Down (9 down/3 up) Jun..21->Jun..27  83,3% Down (10 down/2 up) Jun..29->Jul..04  91,7% Up (11 up/1 down) Jul..13->Jul..20  75,0% Down (9 down/3 up) Jul..23->Aug..04  75,0% Down (9 down/3 up) ...

Cycle Forecast for AAPL This is the cyclical forecast for AAPL, based on 918 day and 250 day cycles. We can see that there is a buying opportunity in mid-February. Seasonal Chart for AAPL In recent months, AAPL has followed the seasonal pattern well. However, the correlation table shows that seasonal trading usually does not work for AAPL.